Abstract

The vast majority of stochastic dynamic programming applications in reservoir operation focuses on the stochastic uncertainty of the inflow processes and/or the demand level. Beyond these system uncertainties, model uncertainties are introduced due to discretization of the reservoir states into several classes which results in inherent specificity uncertainty of the storage volume around a particular value. In this paper, explicit considerations of the imprecision uncertainty on the demand level and the non-specificity uncertainty of the storage volume in its circumscribing class are made through the application of fuzzy theory within the framework of stochastic dynamic programming. The strategy is applied to the Fairbairn reservoir in Emerald, Central Queensland, Australia.

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